Black Wednesday

I don't know if you follow the stock market, but you may have noticed Toshiba shares took a nosedive yesterday. The city got word that I was team leader! The rota'd TL was sick, so I had to step up to the plate LOL. You could taste the irony, as the office clown, attempted to exert some kind of authority. It's a victory for slackers everywhere. Actually the team managed to keep a lid on most things, and apparently the company is still trading. I have applied for the post permanently, as they are fairly desperate to fill the spots, I may even get it. It's not much in terms of salary but will look good on CV.

Good graph for today

I even had A's busted by 22 on the river too. Did I turn on the chat as usual? Not a bit of it, just had a chuckle and played on. Maybe I have kicked the tapping on the glass habit, don't know, too early to tell, but definitely progress.

Don't Tap on the Glass...

Maybe I shouldn't have mentioned attaining the magic $250, as the poker gods heard and they have cast variance down on me with a vengeance. The fish are hitting every two outer on the river, like chasing is going out of business. I say variance, but some of it may be I am not the LAG I need to be. LAG means loose/aggressive, I play and raise more hands than a TAG (tight/aggressive) but less than the fish. The key to good lag play is reading the flop and outplaying your opponents on later streets.

Anyway, here is the most illogical thing I do while playing online poker. Tapping on the glass. Is when you berate, insult, and abuse the retarded moronic plays fish make in the hands against you, when they catch unlikely hands to win the pot. As any theory book will tell you, there is no justification for it. The outcome will be one of two things, both bad. A) You will educate the fish, by explaining his bad play. You need as many bad players in the game as possible. B) You will upset the fish, and he will leave the table. Now a potential source of income has left with your money. I know all this, and yet , cannot resist turning the chat back on (I have it switched off in a futile attempt to combat this habit) and giving the fish both barrels. I keep telling myself, I need to get over this but..... ah well, they say recognising is the first step.

Got to do a Double Shift....

Not too much poker in the last few days, I did double shifts at work Saturday AND, I say, AND Sunday, and as it is very busy at the moment, I only managed to play a bit at work. I have a mobile broadband dongle, so I can play a bit, only one table though, as work keeps getting in the way, so inconsiderate. Last three or four sessions have seen small profits, so still working towards that magic $250 bank roll. I have to decide how I am going to celebrate this milestone, sometimes it feels like a like a long time coming, but it's all good discipline and patience wise.

Needing the exercise I took a walk into town today, to get a haircut. Bought a couple of books as I had a voucher to use up. Looking forward to starting 'The Search for the Dice Man' by Luke Rhinehart. I had forgotten just how awesome 'The Dice Man' is and I have not read anything else by him. Took a quick look at this sequel over coffee, and looks really good. Also got 'Matterhorn' Karl Marlantes. Epic Vietnam war novel, an era that fascinates me. Lastly, 'Invisible' Paul Auster. Read quite a few of his, and I enjoy his enigmatic style. Thing is, I am already reading and enjoying 'Dracula' which I picked up in the cheap classics section of Asda/Wall Mart for a quid, bargain.

Quick ten minute video of my poker setup and a few hands here

http://www.screentoaster.com./watch/stUE9dQ0dLRFtWQFpcWl9aU1NS/simon_poker_setup

Web Site of the Day

http://www.stumbleupon.com/su/1oiez8/www.bestonlinetools.org/50-top-websites-to-download-ebooks/

Don't Know What to Title Todays Blog

Yesterdays graph looking better. Recovered $5 or so, of the recent debacle. If I am on an early shift, I try to get in two hours poker before Denise gets home, but yesterday, quit early due to the high win rate I wanted to protect. This is not really the correct attitude in the sense, that if you are beating the game, then the longer you play, the better. But, another reason to play only those two hours, is because I then start to get tired. This is also when poor or sub optimal decisions start to creep in.

If you have not already seen it, my beloved Orient star in the latest Nintendo DS ad.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwE0_bzZTQA

Me and Mark went to see the boys on Tuesday night, in a first round replay against upstart local rivals Dagenham and redbridge. I never thought I would hear the chant "We love you Dagenham, we do", but there you go, we stuffed them 3-2 despite the idiot ref awarding them a sympathy pen to let them back in it.

Website of the day

http://www.stumbleupon.com/su/2incLn/www.futilitycloset.com/2010/06/28/mirror-years

The Cooler King

OK, yesterday I was saying I was .82c up, well that went south pretty rapidly. It turned into what we poker degenerates call, a cooler.

There are sessions where no matter what you do, how well you play, the poker gods will mock you. They will give idiot players, fish as we call them, improbable hands time after time. Yesterday I had two full houses beaten, which accounts for stacking off twice (losing my entire buy in for that table). Sometimes you get in the situation where your opponent, known as the villain, requires a one or two outer to beat you. That is, there are only one or two cards left in the pack to be dealt, that can beat you. The odds against the villain hitting are high. But on certain days, they will, again and again.

This is what I have referred to before, as variance. Mathematical probabilities are correct over very high samples. In the short term all kinds of weird plays can happen. Even knowing this, is no guarantee of sanity though. You can start to question your strategy, your karma and whether it is unlucky to be superstitious (It is). Another downside to this variance is it can affect your discipline, I made some bad plays, because I let emotion into the building. The poker table is not a place for emotions.

Today is a new day, time to dust myself off, and get back in the ring. One upside is I get post a pic of the all time cooler king himself.

Saving for cheeseburgers.

It's two hours and twenty minutes into today's session and I am .82c up. Yes, another few hours and I can afford a cheeseburger!

You may be wondering, what is the point? Poker players view their progress by win rate, that is, big blinds per hour, or per hundred hands. Money or chips are just the points system they use to keep score, and not viewed as real money.

I am playing .1c-.2c (2nl) so my win rate today is 41bb/100. General poker wisdom says that three or four big blinds per hundred is a good win rate, so mine today, so far is positively extortionate. I can feel Bill Gates quaking in his boots, that I might be buying him out soon. As I was saying in another post, it's the long term that matters, many hundreds of thousands of hands that count. Being a long term winner is the goal.

Todays web site of the day,

http://www.stumbleupon.com/su/ADP44u/www.um-hi.com/hootch/jack.html

The Dark Side

It's been nearly a year since my last post. Good job I am not a writer.

I have decided to take another run at poker. My last post related to how variance can affect your game, with more research, I have discovered that my bankroll for my last run at 200nl ($1-2$) at 10 buy ins, was not nearly enough to cover variance and bad play.

A conservative amount is considered to be 40 buy ins of whatever stake you play. I am going to go 50, as I think the extra cushion helps my A game. That is, I can be more aggressive knowing I should not bust.

I am currently playing the basement level micros .1c-.2c or 2nl and when my bankroll reaches $250 I will move to 5nl, and so on.

This time around I have done a lot of reading of poker forums, to maximise my strategy for these levels. My stating roll was about $40 and I am now about $30 short of the next level. Hopefully I can post my winnings here!

The Poker Precipice

Here's the thing about poker for the uninitiated. It's a zero sum game. That is, the casino or house has no edge over you, there is no built in probabilities to help you lose your money, like other casino games.



The above statement is not 100% true as casinos and some private poker games will have a commission or 'rake' that goes towards the running of the game, but it's a nominal amount and not the same as the house edge.



Because it's a zero sum game, it's you versus the other players. Over time, if you are a good or better than good player, you will make money. You may have heard the saying 'If you sit at at a poker table, and cannot spot the chump, it's probably you'.



So far so good, all you have to do, is study the best players in the world, read a lot of poker books, play thousands of hands and bingo! It's all gravy. Now we get to the bad news.



When I say over time, this could mean literally millions of hands before the probabilities kick in. All regular poker players, will at some time or another, suffer from a disease called short term variation.



Let me give you an example. I read a true story on the Internet, about a Vegas poker pro, during a World Series of Poker event from a few years ago.



It's about the middle of the main event and our hero is in position where he needs to play to at least maintain his chip stack, but is not under enough pressure to move all in yet, he has about average chips.



After the deal he looks down and sees the best possible two cards you can start a hold 'em hand with, ace ace. The bullets, American Airlines. The odds of drawing AA are 220-1. This is also the odds of drawing any two specific cards., because it is 4 in 52 for your first card times 3 in 51 for the second card.



Anyway, needless to say our hero suffers a beat, which is when an unlikely hand ends up beating a better hand. The odds of AA beating any other hand with one opponent are about 1-4 or the AA will win 80% of the time.



However, our story is only just getting warmed up. Our hero curses his luck, but even though the beat dented his total chips, it's not the end of the world, he has enough to get back into the game. The very next hand he gets, can you guess? AA again. Now the odds of this happening are 220-1 times 220-1 = 1 in 484,400.



This was a day when it looks like lady luck has deserted our hero because he now loses the pot again. Now there are not many chips left and he really has to move all in with any hand he is dealt next.



With a philosophical shrug, he checks the cards after the deal. He is dealt AA!!! As I am sure you are aware, the odds of this happening are 220-1 times 220-1 times 220-1 = 1 in 1,0648,000, and even more unbelievable, he loses with AA again and crashes out of the tournament.



Although this is an extreme example of short term variation, it illustrates how even when you do everything right, and have the right cards it can all go wrong.



In my own poker career, I caught the STV disease (sounds worse abbreviated!) about the middle of 2004. I had already fluked a seat in the 2002 WSOP and had made a profit in tournaments for the next couple of years. Once my bankroll had got to $2000 I decided to make a run at the online $1-$2 no limit cash game. The maximum buy in for any one table at these stakes is $200, which means I would have to lose my whole buy in 10 times in a row to bust.



The type of personality you need to be a successful cash game player is called tight-aggressive. That is you don't play a lot of hands, but when you do, you play them strong. I pride myself at being a machine at the table, I don't tilt when I hit a beat, and I am not there for the gambling 'action' but only, purely to win money. Boring as it sometimes is, I can play like this for hours, days even.



It took me about six months to lose the whole bankroll. I rarely hit playable starting hands, when I did they got beat, strategic late position steal moves always got called, or only made very small pots. Anytime I got all in with the best hand I got outdrawn. I did make some errors in my play, I'm only human. but the variance killed me. To this day, I rarely play cash games, certainly not for significant stakes.I think poker broke me, during those months.



The upside was, I was playing with money won from poker, so at least the kids still got to eat!



I still play tournaments when I get the time, and do OK, I'd like to play bigger buy ins, but who has the spare cash theses days?



I think it was in Jesse Mays book 'Shut up and deal' where he says 'Poker is not really about mastering strategy, probability, body language etc. it's about mastering the luck, if you know how to play through that, that's a winning player'

Astronomy Pic of the day

Not a great deal happening here in a town called malice. So a couple of websites to pass the time.


http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

It's a different NASA image everyday. You can also find/google software to auto change your desktop background, to match each day, which I have installed on my work laptop.

It is not 'just' nebulea, but all kinds of things astronomy related.


Talking of links, did you know the // in the address of web sites was a mistake?

http://thenextweb.com/2009/10/14/berners-lee-internet-what-would-you-change/

Leeds Castle

It's been seven years since my last bog entry. As Haleys Comet may be due (I have no idea, you would have to ask my sister Karen) I have decided to resurrect the blog.



It originated as a semi-pro poker player blog, which turned out a whole lot more semi than pro! Still playing, but only small stakes and for fun, though I still like to win.



Today, I have nearly recovered from a weekend staying in Maidstone Kent. My friend Del was chairing an event of The Embalmers Institute, plenty of alcohol and dodgy facebook pics later, It's Monday now, I feel almost human.



The hotel was adjacent to Leeds Castle. In order to postpone the drive back to Herts, we thought we would take a walk to the attraction. The entrance fee was £16.50 per person, I like a castle as much as anybody, but £16 quid? These things should belong to the national trust and be free or nominal charge.



Time to think about work on the late shift, see you in seven years?

My Phil Hellmuth Story

Picture the scene. Downtown Las Vegas, Binions Horseshoe Casino, It is, of course, the World Series of Poker. The year is 2002. It is just after lunch, and I am standing outside of the tournament area, waiting with the other players for the afternoon session to start. I have had a reasonable morning, caught some decent hole cards, and overall my stack is intact. Suprisingly so now looking back, as I'm playing like a rabbit caught in the headlights. I was what used to be called 'dead money' by the pro's. An amateur waiting to be polished off. That was in the 'pre moneymaker' era anyway. I glance across the room, and there, stood patiently waiting with the rest of us, was Phil Hellmuth.

So what was I, this amateur doing in the WSOP? I had been extremely lucky in an Ultimatebet.com tournament and won my seat. The more I think about it now, the more unbelievable it seems. But it happened and I was there, playing the 'Big dance' at the Mecca of poker.

There are many people I look up to in life. Authors, scientists, etc. Among my greatest heroes are professional poker players. Those who make a living playing cards. Those who treat money as mere poker tokens. Who will bet what is for most of us, maybe a years salary. And think nothing of it, if lady luck is unkind. Those who have no boss, and choose their hours of work. I see these people as the last great pioneers, rejecting the squareness of the world. Living by the fragile fate, of the turn of a card.

One of these heroes is a player called Phil Hellmuth. Here is some stuff about Phil www.philhellmuth.com/about.html

In short Phil is an extremely successful player. He has been called brash, arrogant and many other names.
I think this is what is known as 'goes with the territory'. Now, as I stand there across the room from Phil, I'm thinking 'Well, surely I cannot pass up this opportunity to talk to Phil....' but, it's the WSOP, he might be psyching himself up, or going over last minute strategy decisions. How will he react to me, the dead money, just introducing myself to him?

I gather my courage, it will be worth it, if I can just get Phil to give me some words of wisdom. On my side is the fact that Phil is part of the UB team. He will probably be aware of me winning the seat, as I am the only UB seat winner that year.

I walk over and look up. I stand about 5'10" and Phil is much taller. I introduce myself and explain who I am. Phil grins and congratulates me. He looks calm and relaxed. I thank him and ask him what his strategy will be for the next session. He takes a second or two to think, and then gives me some poker wisdom, I take with me every time I play.

he says

"Well, if they come fast that's good, and if they come slow, that's good too". And finishes with another big grin. I wish him good luck, and we part. I'm conscious of not out staying my welcome.

For any non poker players reading this, he means, that he will play whatever hand he is dealt, and whatever player he will face. Playing poker with the flow, rather than with a pre-conceived or false strategy.

unfortunately Phil did not go on to win that year. Even more unfortunately neither did I. I was busted by the British pro Julian Gardner. His pair of fives killing my Diamond flush draw.

But that is another story.

A conceit of poker players.

At the table, poker players are ruthless people. Not suprising when the object of the game is to take all your opponents money. That is, not to prove you are better, stronger etc, but to completely crush your opponents into the ground, every time you play them.

But what may be suprising to non-poker players is the friendships that are made between poker players. There is a quiet, knowing smile shared between poker players who meet, because they all know what it is like to win big, lose big, bust and the many other possible scenarios.

I have made a few such friends through my own poker experience. I started playing on-line sometime in 2001, at Ultimatebet.com. There were about 400 regular players at that time. As you spend hours at the table names are repeated and remembered, and personalities emerge, at the end of a network cable. A 'group', What is the collective noun for poker players?, of us used to congregate around the .10-.25c NL tables. I feel we all learned to fold, fold, and then fold some more together. There are maybe ten players from those days I am still in contact with. One of those players, lets call him 'Jerry Lewis' springs to mind. It is unusual these days that I will sit with players, I know can play, for very long, but me and jerry were there recently. I had JJ in the hole and made a set on the flop, as there was only me and Jerry in the hand I announced my hand, and we checked it down. This is known as 'soft play' or 'cheating', and one other player at the table was a bit upset by our actions. Another player at the table had no objections to this 'deal'. I realize that this play is not in the spirit of the game, but I take no pleasure in taking money from a friend, and is it turned out, we both left the table soon afterwards.


Another good friend from those halcyon days, recently sent me a book all the way, from the United States, and it's not even a poker book! It is also this player that, during a particularly bleak spell, running bad, was there, to help me rebuild my confidence, and get back in the game.

During the 2002 WSOP, I made another friend from the other side of the software, who was working for UB at the time. We are now in regular contact thanks to the wonder of the internet. Also during that great trip, I met several US and British Pro players. It amazed me how generous they were with their time, to explain strategy tips or have a beer at the bar with me, a poker nobody amateur.

These are just a few of my poker buddy experiences, I hope you get the picture. In a world where every player believes he is the best in the world (except me, I know....) Away from the table, it is my experience, that these people are the opposite of their table images and the ruthlessness of their actions is replaced by kindness and generosity.

To blog, or not to blog?

If you read any poker books, they will tell you, you have to fold a lot of hands. That gives you plenty of time to contemplate the current game, and also, life.

So I thought I'd blog the rest of the time, as I have already extensively studied the view from my window. If you have ever visited Stevenage in Hertfordshire, you'll understand why it is unlikely, Constable would have painted 'Four teenagers, comically dressed, hanging around.'

So is there going to be anything interesting in it? I don't know, I thought I'd ramble and see what happens.....