The Poker Precipice

Here's the thing about poker for the uninitiated. It's a zero sum game. That is, the casino or house has no edge over you, there is no built in probabilities to help you lose your money, like other casino games.



The above statement is not 100% true as casinos and some private poker games will have a commission or 'rake' that goes towards the running of the game, but it's a nominal amount and not the same as the house edge.



Because it's a zero sum game, it's you versus the other players. Over time, if you are a good or better than good player, you will make money. You may have heard the saying 'If you sit at at a poker table, and cannot spot the chump, it's probably you'.



So far so good, all you have to do, is study the best players in the world, read a lot of poker books, play thousands of hands and bingo! It's all gravy. Now we get to the bad news.



When I say over time, this could mean literally millions of hands before the probabilities kick in. All regular poker players, will at some time or another, suffer from a disease called short term variation.



Let me give you an example. I read a true story on the Internet, about a Vegas poker pro, during a World Series of Poker event from a few years ago.



It's about the middle of the main event and our hero is in position where he needs to play to at least maintain his chip stack, but is not under enough pressure to move all in yet, he has about average chips.



After the deal he looks down and sees the best possible two cards you can start a hold 'em hand with, ace ace. The bullets, American Airlines. The odds of drawing AA are 220-1. This is also the odds of drawing any two specific cards., because it is 4 in 52 for your first card times 3 in 51 for the second card.



Anyway, needless to say our hero suffers a beat, which is when an unlikely hand ends up beating a better hand. The odds of AA beating any other hand with one opponent are about 1-4 or the AA will win 80% of the time.



However, our story is only just getting warmed up. Our hero curses his luck, but even though the beat dented his total chips, it's not the end of the world, he has enough to get back into the game. The very next hand he gets, can you guess? AA again. Now the odds of this happening are 220-1 times 220-1 = 1 in 484,400.



This was a day when it looks like lady luck has deserted our hero because he now loses the pot again. Now there are not many chips left and he really has to move all in with any hand he is dealt next.



With a philosophical shrug, he checks the cards after the deal. He is dealt AA!!! As I am sure you are aware, the odds of this happening are 220-1 times 220-1 times 220-1 = 1 in 1,0648,000, and even more unbelievable, he loses with AA again and crashes out of the tournament.



Although this is an extreme example of short term variation, it illustrates how even when you do everything right, and have the right cards it can all go wrong.



In my own poker career, I caught the STV disease (sounds worse abbreviated!) about the middle of 2004. I had already fluked a seat in the 2002 WSOP and had made a profit in tournaments for the next couple of years. Once my bankroll had got to $2000 I decided to make a run at the online $1-$2 no limit cash game. The maximum buy in for any one table at these stakes is $200, which means I would have to lose my whole buy in 10 times in a row to bust.



The type of personality you need to be a successful cash game player is called tight-aggressive. That is you don't play a lot of hands, but when you do, you play them strong. I pride myself at being a machine at the table, I don't tilt when I hit a beat, and I am not there for the gambling 'action' but only, purely to win money. Boring as it sometimes is, I can play like this for hours, days even.



It took me about six months to lose the whole bankroll. I rarely hit playable starting hands, when I did they got beat, strategic late position steal moves always got called, or only made very small pots. Anytime I got all in with the best hand I got outdrawn. I did make some errors in my play, I'm only human. but the variance killed me. To this day, I rarely play cash games, certainly not for significant stakes.I think poker broke me, during those months.



The upside was, I was playing with money won from poker, so at least the kids still got to eat!



I still play tournaments when I get the time, and do OK, I'd like to play bigger buy ins, but who has the spare cash theses days?



I think it was in Jesse Mays book 'Shut up and deal' where he says 'Poker is not really about mastering strategy, probability, body language etc. it's about mastering the luck, if you know how to play through that, that's a winning player'

Astronomy Pic of the day

Not a great deal happening here in a town called malice. So a couple of websites to pass the time.


http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

It's a different NASA image everyday. You can also find/google software to auto change your desktop background, to match each day, which I have installed on my work laptop.

It is not 'just' nebulea, but all kinds of things astronomy related.


Talking of links, did you know the // in the address of web sites was a mistake?

http://thenextweb.com/2009/10/14/berners-lee-internet-what-would-you-change/

Leeds Castle

It's been seven years since my last bog entry. As Haleys Comet may be due (I have no idea, you would have to ask my sister Karen) I have decided to resurrect the blog.



It originated as a semi-pro poker player blog, which turned out a whole lot more semi than pro! Still playing, but only small stakes and for fun, though I still like to win.



Today, I have nearly recovered from a weekend staying in Maidstone Kent. My friend Del was chairing an event of The Embalmers Institute, plenty of alcohol and dodgy facebook pics later, It's Monday now, I feel almost human.



The hotel was adjacent to Leeds Castle. In order to postpone the drive back to Herts, we thought we would take a walk to the attraction. The entrance fee was £16.50 per person, I like a castle as much as anybody, but £16 quid? These things should belong to the national trust and be free or nominal charge.



Time to think about work on the late shift, see you in seven years?

My Phil Hellmuth Story

Picture the scene. Downtown Las Vegas, Binions Horseshoe Casino, It is, of course, the World Series of Poker. The year is 2002. It is just after lunch, and I am standing outside of the tournament area, waiting with the other players for the afternoon session to start. I have had a reasonable morning, caught some decent hole cards, and overall my stack is intact. Suprisingly so now looking back, as I'm playing like a rabbit caught in the headlights. I was what used to be called 'dead money' by the pro's. An amateur waiting to be polished off. That was in the 'pre moneymaker' era anyway. I glance across the room, and there, stood patiently waiting with the rest of us, was Phil Hellmuth.

So what was I, this amateur doing in the WSOP? I had been extremely lucky in an Ultimatebet.com tournament and won my seat. The more I think about it now, the more unbelievable it seems. But it happened and I was there, playing the 'Big dance' at the Mecca of poker.

There are many people I look up to in life. Authors, scientists, etc. Among my greatest heroes are professional poker players. Those who make a living playing cards. Those who treat money as mere poker tokens. Who will bet what is for most of us, maybe a years salary. And think nothing of it, if lady luck is unkind. Those who have no boss, and choose their hours of work. I see these people as the last great pioneers, rejecting the squareness of the world. Living by the fragile fate, of the turn of a card.

One of these heroes is a player called Phil Hellmuth. Here is some stuff about Phil www.philhellmuth.com/about.html

In short Phil is an extremely successful player. He has been called brash, arrogant and many other names.
I think this is what is known as 'goes with the territory'. Now, as I stand there across the room from Phil, I'm thinking 'Well, surely I cannot pass up this opportunity to talk to Phil....' but, it's the WSOP, he might be psyching himself up, or going over last minute strategy decisions. How will he react to me, the dead money, just introducing myself to him?

I gather my courage, it will be worth it, if I can just get Phil to give me some words of wisdom. On my side is the fact that Phil is part of the UB team. He will probably be aware of me winning the seat, as I am the only UB seat winner that year.

I walk over and look up. I stand about 5'10" and Phil is much taller. I introduce myself and explain who I am. Phil grins and congratulates me. He looks calm and relaxed. I thank him and ask him what his strategy will be for the next session. He takes a second or two to think, and then gives me some poker wisdom, I take with me every time I play.

he says

"Well, if they come fast that's good, and if they come slow, that's good too". And finishes with another big grin. I wish him good luck, and we part. I'm conscious of not out staying my welcome.

For any non poker players reading this, he means, that he will play whatever hand he is dealt, and whatever player he will face. Playing poker with the flow, rather than with a pre-conceived or false strategy.

unfortunately Phil did not go on to win that year. Even more unfortunately neither did I. I was busted by the British pro Julian Gardner. His pair of fives killing my Diamond flush draw.

But that is another story.

A conceit of poker players.

At the table, poker players are ruthless people. Not suprising when the object of the game is to take all your opponents money. That is, not to prove you are better, stronger etc, but to completely crush your opponents into the ground, every time you play them.

But what may be suprising to non-poker players is the friendships that are made between poker players. There is a quiet, knowing smile shared between poker players who meet, because they all know what it is like to win big, lose big, bust and the many other possible scenarios.

I have made a few such friends through my own poker experience. I started playing on-line sometime in 2001, at Ultimatebet.com. There were about 400 regular players at that time. As you spend hours at the table names are repeated and remembered, and personalities emerge, at the end of a network cable. A 'group', What is the collective noun for poker players?, of us used to congregate around the .10-.25c NL tables. I feel we all learned to fold, fold, and then fold some more together. There are maybe ten players from those days I am still in contact with. One of those players, lets call him 'Jerry Lewis' springs to mind. It is unusual these days that I will sit with players, I know can play, for very long, but me and jerry were there recently. I had JJ in the hole and made a set on the flop, as there was only me and Jerry in the hand I announced my hand, and we checked it down. This is known as 'soft play' or 'cheating', and one other player at the table was a bit upset by our actions. Another player at the table had no objections to this 'deal'. I realize that this play is not in the spirit of the game, but I take no pleasure in taking money from a friend, and is it turned out, we both left the table soon afterwards.


Another good friend from those halcyon days, recently sent me a book all the way, from the United States, and it's not even a poker book! It is also this player that, during a particularly bleak spell, running bad, was there, to help me rebuild my confidence, and get back in the game.

During the 2002 WSOP, I made another friend from the other side of the software, who was working for UB at the time. We are now in regular contact thanks to the wonder of the internet. Also during that great trip, I met several US and British Pro players. It amazed me how generous they were with their time, to explain strategy tips or have a beer at the bar with me, a poker nobody amateur.

These are just a few of my poker buddy experiences, I hope you get the picture. In a world where every player believes he is the best in the world (except me, I know....) Away from the table, it is my experience, that these people are the opposite of their table images and the ruthlessness of their actions is replaced by kindness and generosity.

To blog, or not to blog?

If you read any poker books, they will tell you, you have to fold a lot of hands. That gives you plenty of time to contemplate the current game, and also, life.

So I thought I'd blog the rest of the time, as I have already extensively studied the view from my window. If you have ever visited Stevenage in Hertfordshire, you'll understand why it is unlikely, Constable would have painted 'Four teenagers, comically dressed, hanging around.'

So is there going to be anything interesting in it? I don't know, I thought I'd ramble and see what happens.....